The Economic Dynamics of City Structure: Evidence from Hiroshima's Recovery
with Atsushi Yamagishi, Forthcoming in the Journal of Political Economy
Hiroshima’s city structure recovered within five years of the atomic bombing. A dynamic quantitative urban model attributes this recovery to strong agglomeration forces, while highlighting the roles of multiple equilibria and expectations in urban dynamics.
Manuscript Online Appendix Presentation Slides Replication Package
Op-Ed: VoxEU article VoxDev article CEP CentrePiece Toyo Keizai Column
The Geography of Structural Transformation: Effects on Inequality and Mobility
Historical industrial specialization causes structural transformation to proceed unevenly across US cities. A dynamic economic geography model shows that these differences help explain the slowdown and geographic variation in intergenerational mobility.
Manuscript Online Appendix Web-based Supplementary Material
Op-Ed: USAPP blog post
Trade and Intergenerational Income Mobility: Theory and Evidence from the U.S.
with Italo Colantone and Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, Revision requested by the Journal of International Economics
U.S. regions more exposed to Chinese import competition experienced lower intergenerational mobility. A dynamic economic geography model shows how trade shocks depress wage growth and restrict movement across sectors and locations, affecting opportunities for the next generation.
Manuscript
Universities, New Tasks, and the Rise of Services
with Chang Liu
Regions with leading research universities experienced faster growth in high-skill services. A task-based spatial model shows that universities drive this transition through skilled labor supply, worker productivity, and the creation and adoption of new tasks.
Global Spillovers of Environmental Policy: Evidence from Japan’s Waste Exports
with Yusuke Kuroishi, Kentaro Nakajima, Yasuyuki Sawada, Yutaro Takayasu and Mari Tanaka
China’s Operation National Sword sharply reduced Japanese waste exports to China. Firms redirected some waste toward countries with weaker waste-management performance and substituted toward non-banned products, creating sizable global environmental spillovers.
Manuscript
How Useful are Quantitative Urban Models for Cities in Developing Countries?
with Daniel Sturm and Anthony Venables
We combine cell-phone data, travel times, and satellite data to estimate a quantitative urban model of Dhaka. The model recovers land and floor-space prices and evaluates density and transport policies in a data-scarce environment.
Manuscript
Highways, High-Speed Railways, and Urban Growth: Evidence from Japan 1970 - 2015
with Tomoya Mori
Using Japan’s transport network expansion, we distinguish between betweenness and closeness centrality. Greater betweenness promotes city growth, while greater closeness primarily encourages decentralization within cities.
Policy Related Work
Exploring the Urban Model: Employment, Housing, and Infrastructure
with Daniel Sturm and Anthony Venables
We study how the locations of households and firms are jointly determined by technology, preferences, and geography. The model explains when monocentric and polycentric cities arise and how they respond to policy interventions.
World Bank WP #9910, January 2022
Selected Comments and Discussions
“Sorting to Expensive Cities“ by Cecile Gaubert and Frederic Robert-Nicoud, 2023 CEPR CURE, Torino [slides]
“Identifying Agglomeration Shadows: Long-run Evidence from Ancient Ports“ by Richard Hornbeck, Guy Michaels and Ferdinand Rauch, 2023 UEA EU meeting, Milano [slides]
“Market size, trade and productivity reconsidered: Poverty traps and the home market“ by Marcus Berliant and Takatoshi Tabuchi, 2023 UEA NA meeting, Toronto [slides]
“The Dual Local Markets: Family, Jobs, and the Spatial Distribution of Skills“ by Jingting Fan and Ben Zou, 2024 ABFER meeting, Singapore [slides]
“Are Big Cities Important for Economic Growth?” by Matthew Turner and David Weil, 2025 UEA NA meeting
“Green Development“ by Bruno Conte, Jose-Luiz Cruz, Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2026 UEA EU Meeting [slides]